Will The Spurs Finish In The Top-4?
It’s been an odd season in the Premier League thus far. Chelsea and Manchester City are controlling the top of the tables as expected, but beyond the two favourites there have been a number of surprises. Southampton followed up on a hot start to the campaign to remain in the top-three long after it was expected to fade; Arsenal and Liverpool have underachieved and struggled to find consistency; Manchester United started cold under new manager Louis van Gaal but has since found stellar form on occasions; and through it all, Tottenham managed to linger just below the top line.
Through 25 matches played, Tottenham sits at sixth in the league standings, just one point behind Man Utd., two behind Arsenal, and one ahead of Liverpool despite the loss Tuesday at Anfield. That’s fairly indicative of all four of these clubs’ performance this season, but what it says moving forward is more interesting: the last spot in the top-four is up for grabs. Naturally, it is an enthusiastically coveted position as it comes with a spot in Champions League qualifying. Truthfully, a third place finish—and automatic placement in the Champions League group stage—is not out of the question for any of the four clubs clustered around spots four through seven. Southampton, in third, sits dead even with Arsenal, though with one fewer match played.
The question, then, is this: is Tottenham in a position to stay competitive and finish in the top-four? Here’s a bit on where the Spurs stand beyond the point totals.
We’ll start with Tuesday’s performance, which was simultaneously a serious blow to Tottenham and a result that shouldn’t be taken too heavily. There’s no denying that a win at Anfield would have gone a long way toward earning the Spurs a top-four finish. Tottenham could have come away with a seven-point edge over Liverpool and more or less pushed them out of the conversation for the time being. Instead, Liverpool climbed to within a point of the Spurs, effectively crowding the race for the top-four even more.
However, the match itself was far from disastrous for Tottenham. As a match report at Daily Mail stated, a draw would have been a fair result, with Tottenham gaining steam throughout the contest, equalising twice, and more or less earning a point on merit. But Mario Balotelli stole the match for the Reds, finally coming through with the heroics the Anfield fans expected when he was signed last summer. Basically, the Spurs fell victim to an eventuality that was going to burn somebody at some point.
The more troubling question regarding the Spurs may not be what happened on Tuesday, but rather whether this club may already have performed to its very best capability. Writing on fixture info on Betfair, football analyst Andy Brassell addressed this question, essentially commending Mauricio Pochettino for Tottenham’s results thus far but wondering whether he can squeeze any more out of the club. In the process, Brassell acknowledged what most Spurs supporters have been able to happily ignore for the past few months: on paper, this just doesn’t look like a top-four club. Of course, that’s why they play the matches. However, reading this analysis and listening to reason, it’s not out of the question to suppose Tottenham will struggle to keep up down the stretch and ultimately lose out to some
combination of the more talented Man Utd. and Arsenal—and the inexplicably steadfast Southampton.
And then there’s the rest of the schedule to consider. And frankly, the Spurs’ remaining fixtures don’t offer any particularly long stretch of relief from tough play. Tottenham still needs to host a tricky West Ham side on Feb. 22, as well as Man City on May 2, when City may be in the thick of a championship race. Furthermore, the Spurs need to visit Old Trafford to face Man Utd. on March 15, and Southampton on April 25. That’s a spattering of very difficult fixtures throughout the remainder of the season, which means Tottenham will have to continue earning points without a particularly soft stretch on the horizon. There will be very little margin for error.
None of this is to suggest Tottenham can’t secure a top-four spot. Only three points separate Southampton and Arsenal at third and fourth place with Liverpool at seventh, which makes that position anybody’s to grab. Pochettino has had the Spurs playing to every ounce of their potential, and it’s been more or less good enough thus far. Meanwhile, Harry Kane, with a goal on Tuesday, continues to show form as strong as any player in the league. If the club can keep pace in general and secure a win in one of a few major opportunities, such as that fixture at Old Trafford, the Champions League may be a reality. But at this point, we wouldn’t bet on it—not because it’s too far-fetched, but because there are five teams fighting for two spots, and none has a clear advantage.
